Should the first project a Black Belt works on (the one that the Black Belt does for training) be one of substance or one that is a sure winner without much substance?

The first Black Belt project is just that – a training project.  It is not a platform from which to attempt solving world hunger, or the like.  The purpose of a training project is two fold.  The first purpose is related to the reinforcement of learning.  The second purpose is to realize an operational objective...